Russia’s Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov said the country could be producing close to 500 metric tons of gold annually. His comments have prompted debate among mining analysts and market participants about how such an increase could occur without major new production entering the market. The announcement also comes as Russia’s official gold output reporting remains limited after Western sanctions and export restrictions following the war in Ukraine.
Government statements on 2025 and 2026 mined gold
Kozlov spoke to the state-owned TASS news agency ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. He said final calculations for 2025 were still being completed, while ministry expert assessments indicate output of 480 to 485 tons. He also suggested production during 2026 could stay within a 480 to 500 ton range.
The ministry estimates have been described as exceeding most independent industry assessments. Industry executives cited by the report questioned the plausibility of a sharp rise in output given the lack of major new gold mines entering production in recent years. The discussion centers on whether current operations could support the stated volumes.
Why verification is difficult amid export restrictions
Russia stopped publishing detailed gold production statistics after Western nations and major bullion exchanges imposed restrictions on Russian gold exports. Market participants have since relied on regional mining data, company disclosures, and independent research firms to estimate national output. With limited transparent reporting, it has become harder to verify official claims about Russia’s mining performance.
Bloomberg reported that Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources confirmed Kozlov was referring specifically to mined gold production. The ministry did not provide additional details on how the estimates were calculated. Analysts noted that even if recycled gold were included, the figures would still be unusually high compared with earlier reporting.
International benchmarks and differences versus China
The World Gold Council (WGC) data cited in the report shows Russia produced about 330 tons of mined gold in 2024. WGC placed Russia as the world’s second-largest producer behind China, which reported output of 380.2 tons. China Gold Association figures showed Chinese production rose by 1.09%, reaching 381.3 tons.
The report states that a Russian figure approaching 500 tons would imply an increase of roughly 50% in a single year. Market observers described this growth rate as difficult to reconcile with currently known mining developments. The comparison is used to frame questions around the scale and timing of any change in output.
Independent estimates and project timelines affecting expectations
Independent research firm Metals Focus estimated Russian gold production at approximately 345 tons in 2025. This figure is described as substantially below the ministry’s range for the same year. Metals Focus also expects Russian output to continue growing as large-scale mining projects move toward development and eventual production.
The report highlights Sukhoi Log, described as one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold deposits. It is being developed by Polyus, Russia’s largest gold producer. Experts cited in the report said Sukhoi Log is unlikely to deliver significant production volumes until the end of the decade, making it an unlikely explanation for a sharp increase claimed for 2025 and 2026.
Regional forecasts and market context for gold prices
Mikhail Leskov, editor-in-chief of mining publication Gold and Technologies, said at MiningWorld Russia that national gold production likely remained below 370 tons in 2025. Using statistics from Russia’s leading mining regions, Leskov estimated total output at approximately 363.5 to 367.5 tons. Because comprehensive national data remains unavailable, analysts increasingly rely on regional figures to estimate overall production.
The debate over Russia’s production levels is occurring alongside record strength in global gold markets. The report links higher prices to investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty, rising government debt, persistent inflation concerns, and central bank purchases aimed at reserve diversification. It also states that higher prices improved profitability across the global mining sector and supported expansion, exploration investment, and accelerated project development.
Status of official data and competing ranges for 2025–2026
The report says Russia’s true production scale remains uncertain until official data is available or independent verification emerges. It contrasts an independent estimate near 345 tons with government-referenced targets approaching 500 tons. In either case, Russia continues to be positioned as a key supplier influencing precious metals markets and broader mining activity.
