German commodities group HMS Bergbau has issued a significantly higher 2026 financial outlook, projecting a move to €2.0bn in group sales alongside rising earnings expectations as it deepens its shift toward an asset-backed commodities platform supported by mining and offtake positions.
The Berlin-based trader reported preliminary 2025 sales of €1.22bn and is forecasting a sharp expansion in traded volumes, commodity exposure, and integrated supply flows over the next year. The guidance also signals a structural transition away from pure intermediation toward ownership-linked and production-linked commodity marketing.
Revenue Expansion and Earnings Guidance
For 2026, HMS Bergbau expects adjusted EBITDA to increase from €22.4mn to €35mn, excluding one-off valuation effects. Reported EBITDA is projected at €55mn, which includes an estimated €20mn one-time gain linked to the initial consolidation of Hoshoza Resources in South Africa.
For 2025, the company reported EBITDA of €59.4mn, which included approximately €37mn in positive valuation effects stemming primarily from the consolidation of Maatla Resources. These effects complicate year-on-year comparisons, but the adjusted figures indicate underlying operating growth.
Trading Model Shift Toward Asset-Backed Exposure
HMS Bergbau is repositioning itself beyond traditional commodities trading in coal, fuels, ores, and cement toward a hybrid model that integrates physical trading with mining participations and long-term offtake structures.
The company is expanding exposure to higher-volume fuel and ore flows, including liquid fuels, lubricants, and maritime fuels, following the acquisition of an experienced shipping fuels team. This segment is characterised by high working-capital intensity, logistics dependency, and counterparty-driven volume growth. The strategy reflects a broader attempt to secure supply-linked margins rather than relying solely on intermediary trading spreads in volatile commodity markets.
Mining Assets in Botswana and South Africa
Mining-linked earnings are expected to become a more material component of group performance in 2026, supported by production ramp-ups at Maatla Resources and Hoshoza Resources, both of which are scheduled to begin production in the first half of 2026.
These assets provide HMS Bergbau with direct exposure to coal production and associated export flows. They also introduce operational risks including production variability, regulatory oversight, logistics constraints, and local jurisdictional exposure across South Africa and Botswana.
The company highlighted coal market conditions as showing a slight recovery following broader price declines through 2025, with March and April 2026 described as the strongest months on record in terms of traded tonnage.
Chrome Ore Offtake Agreement Expands Commodity Base
HMS Bergbau has also secured an exclusive long-term offtake agreement with Mantengu Ltd. covering chrome ore production from the Langpan mine in South Africa. The agreement spans at least eight years and includes the mine’s full chrome ore output. Production capacity is reported at approximately 40,000 tonnes per quarter, with potential for additional upside if output increases. Chrome ore exposure adds diversification beyond coal and fuels, linking HMS Bergbau more directly to stainless steel and ferrochrome supply chains, where South Africa remains a key global producer.
Financing Structure and Corporate Bond Issuance
To support its expanded commodity and mining-linked strategy, HMS Bergbau has announced plans for a new corporate bond issuance of up to €50mn with a five-year maturity ending 22 June 2031.
The bond carries an 8.0% annual coupon, payable semi-annually, and will be used for general corporate financing and growth initiatives in commodity trading. The cost of funding compares with a previous 10.0% coupon on an earlier 2025/2030 bond. The structure highlights the capital intensity of physical commodity expansion, where inventory positions, receivables, logistics chains, and pre-financing requirements typically require sustained liquidity support.
Global Trading Footprint and Commodity Exposure
HMS Bergbau operates across Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, and South America, with mining-linked expansion concentrated in southern Africa. The company’s portfolio includes coal, liquid fuels, lubricants, ores, and chrome ore, reflecting a diversified physical commodities strategy.
The group’s growth model depends on managing logistics complexity, credit exposure, and regional market conditions across multiple jurisdictions. South African rail and port constraints, Botswana export routes, and global freight volatility remain key operational factors influencing realised margins. The company’s strategy positions it within global commodity flows that continue to operate despite shifting European policy sentiment toward coal and fossil fuels.
Earnings Structure and One-Off Effects
Both 2025 and 2026 earnings figures include significant valuation impacts linked to consolidation events, particularly from Maatla Resources and Hoshoza Resources. These accounting effects influence reported EBITDA but are separated from adjusted performance metrics used to assess underlying operations. Adjusted EBITDA growth from €22.4mn to €35mn represents the core operational trajectory highlighted by the company, independent of consolidation-driven revaluation effects. The distinction between adjusted and reported earnings remains central to evaluating HMS Bergbau’s performance as it scales its trading and asset-linked commodity platform.
