Europe’s drive to secure critical-mineral supplies is increasingly aligning with African efforts to capture more value from natural resources. The focus is shifting beyond mining and raw-material exports toward processing, infrastructure and manufacturing.
Demand for lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite, manganese and rare earths is rising across electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial intelligence and defence, while mining and processing capacity has not expanded at the same pace. Geopolitical tensions have increased supply risks. The number of raw-material products affected by at least one export restriction has more than quadrupled since 2009. China’s restrictions on heavy rare earths and permanent magnets in 2025 demonstrated how quickly policy decisions can disrupt international manufacturers.
Europe looks beyond mining diversification
Opening new mines does not necessarily create independent supply chains because many minerals require concentration, refining, separation or chemical conversion before entering industrial production. China remains dominant in several intermediate processing stages. European companies sourcing African ore could therefore reduce mining dependence on one region while continuing to rely on Chinese processing capacity.
The cost of such dependence could be significant. A 2024 study by the Federation of German Industries and Roland Berger estimated that a Chinese ban on lithium and lithium-product exports could cost Germany €115 billion. The EU has responded through measures including the Critical Raw Materials Act, while Germany has established the Raw Materials Fund to support strategically important mining, refining, recycling and technology projects.
Africa is central to diversification efforts, holding an estimated 30% of global critical-mineral reserves. Major resources include copper and cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, platinum-group metals and manganese in southern Africa, bauxite in West Africa and emerging lithium resources across several regions.
African governments push for domestic processing
African resource-producing countries increasingly want to move beyond exporting unprocessed minerals. Governments are introducing export restrictions, beneficiation requirements and local-content rules to retain more economic value. Domestic processing can create skilled jobs, increase foreign-exchange earnings, expand tax revenues and support related industries such as engineering, maintenance, logistics and technical training.
The approach can nevertheless conflict with Europe’s need for reliable and competitively priced supplies. Export restrictions may disrupt contracts, while mandatory local processing can raise costs where electricity, transport and technical expertise are insufficient. The two strategies can also reinforce each other. Europe needs supply chains less concentrated in a single processing centre, while African countries want to develop refining and manufacturing capacity. Competitive African processing could provide European manufacturers with alternative sources of refined metals and battery materials.
Investment must include infrastructure
European involvement could extend beyond finance and mineral purchases. European companies have expertise in industrial machinery, automation, engineering, environmental systems and plant operations, which could support African smelters, refineries and chemical plants. The EU’s Global Gateway strategy combines resource projects with investment in power generation, transport, skills and industrial capacity. Long-term offtake agreements, joint ventures and project-finance structures can also distribute commercial and construction risks among governments, developers, lenders and buyers.
Processing projects require reliable electricity, water, transport infrastructure, specialist workers and secure feedstock. Many require billions of euros before generating revenue, while supporting supplier networks and skilled labour can take decades to develop. African governments often need foreign investors to finance power plants, transport corridors and industrial facilities. Export restrictions introduced before alternative capacity is available could also weaken investor confidence.
Copper highlights the commercial challenge
New processing plants must compete with established centres that benefit from economies of scale, experienced workforces and established customers. Copper illustrates the pressure. Chinese smelting capacity has expanded faster than available concentrate supply, intensifying competition for feedstock. Spot treatment and refining charges fell below zero during 2025, meaning some smelters were effectively paying miners for concentrate rather than receiving processing fees.
New smelters therefore require secure feedstock, low operating costs and strategic support to remain viable. European buyers may accept a limited premium for more resilient or traceable supplies, but they are unlikely to indefinitely cover the costs of inefficient plants. African mineral-processing ambitions will consequently depend on whether new facilities can operate competitively through volatile commodity cycles while giving producer countries a greater share of the value generated by their resources.
