Under the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), the EU aims to source at least 10% of annual strategic raw material consumption from domestic extraction, 40% from EU-based processing and 25% from recycling, while limiting dependence on any single third country to 65% of annual consumption.
The project pipeline has expanded rapidly. The first CRMA strategic-project round selected 60 projects, including 47 inside the EU and 13 outside the EU or in overseas territories. A second round attracted more than 160 applications, comprising 95 from inside the EU and 66 from outside.
The portfolio spans lithium projects in Finland, Germany, France, Portugal, Spain and Czechia; graphite projects in Sweden, Romania, Greenland, Ukraine, Madagascar and Kazakhstan; rare earth developments in France, Poland, Sweden, Norway, Greenland, Malawi and South Africa; copper projects in Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Romania, Finland and Norway; gallium recovery in Greece; tungsten projects in Spain, Portugal and the United Kingdom; and multiple nickel, cobalt and manganese developments.
Lithium processing emerges as a leading strength
Europe’s clearest progress is occurring in midstream lithium processing rather than upstream mining. AMG Lithium’s Bitterfeld-Wolfen refinery in Germany has commissioned an initial module with 20,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium hydroxide capacity and a modular expansion concept targeting 100,000 tonnes per year across five modules.
Vulcan Energy’s Lionheart project in Germany targets 24,000 tonnes per year of lithium hydroxide monohydrate in Phase One, supported by a financing package of approximately €2.2 billion.
Keliber in Finland, controlled by Sibanye-Stillwater with Finnish Minerals Group holding 20%, is designed to produce 15,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate. Mining has already begun at the Syväjärvi open pit, with concentrator ramp-up preceding full refinery operation.
Additional planned capacity includes Imerys’ EMILI project in France, targeting 34,000 tonnes per year of lithium hydroxide, and Rock Tech’s Guben converter in Germany.
Despite the processing build-out, lithium economics remain exposed to global price cycles. Sibanye-Stillwater recorded significant impairments on Keliber, including R7.8 billion in total project impairments in 2025, following weaker long-term lithium price assumptions.
Graphite and anode materials remain a major gap
Europe’s battery sector requires active anode material rather than graphite concentrate alone.
Talga Group’s Vittangi Anode Project in northern Sweden is designed to produce 19,500 tonnes per year of Talnode-C active anode material from Swedish natural graphite. The project has secured €70 million from the EU Innovation Fund and an approved €150 million European Investment Bank debt facility.
GreenRoc Strategic Materials’ Amitsoq project in Greenland holds a 30-year exploitation licence and reports a resource of 23.05 million tonnes at 20.41% graphitic carbon, with planned production of approximately 80,000 tonnes per year of graphite concentrate. The key strategic question is whether European projects can develop full anode-processing capability rather than exporting intermediate graphite products.
Rare earths remain Europe’s most difficult target
Rare earth supply chains remain heavily dependent on Chinese separation and magnet production. Rare Earths Norway’s Fen deposit is now Europe’s flagship rare earth resource with an estimated 15.9 million tonnes of total rare earth oxides, including a significant neodymium-praseodymium component. First production is targeted for late 2031, with potential output of approximately 800 tonnes per year of NdPr by 2032.
Tanbreez in Greenland, controlled by Critical Metals Corp., holds a 30-year exploitation licence and has secured offtake agreements with REalloys and Ucore Rare Metals. LKAB’s Per Geijer project in Sweden adds another major resource base.
Downstream capacity is expanding through Solvay’s La Rochelle facility in France, which targets 30% of Europe’s magnet-grade rare earth market by 2030, including heavy rare earth separation. Neo Performance Materials’ Sillamäe-Narva platform in Estonia includes a magnet plant with initial capacity of 2,000 tonnes per year of sintered NdFeB magnets, expandable to 5,000 tonnes per year. Carester’s Caremag project at Lacq in France is designed to recycle 2,000 tonnes per year of magnets and refine 5,000 tonnes per year of mining concentrate.
Copper projects move closer to production
Europe’s copper pipeline includes several advanced developments. Viscaria in northern Sweden is a fully permitted brownfield underground mine expected to produce approximately 120,000 tonnes per year of copper concentrate, equivalent to 26,000 tonnes per year of contained copper, from 2028. The project has an offtake memorandum with Aurubis AG.
Eldorado Gold’s Skouries project in Greece is approaching first production and is expected to produce on average 67 million pounds of copper and 140,000 ounces of gold annually over an initial 20-year mine life. Anglo American’s Sakatti project in Finland contains copper, nickel, cobalt and platinum group metals, though permitting remains linked to the sensitive Viiankiaapa Natura 2000 mire.
Gallium recovery offers a faster route to supply
METLEN Energy & Metals has secured €90 million in European Investment Bank financing for investments at its Greek bauxite, alumina and aluminium complex, including gallium recovery.
The broader investment programme totals approximately €300 million, with potential gallium production of about 50 tonnes per year by 2028, a level that could cover a significant share of European demand.
Tungsten and recycling add targeted resilience
Tungsten West’s Hemerdon project in Devon has been recognised as strategic under the CRMA framework, while Almonty Industries’ Panasqueira mine in Portugal remains one of Europe’s established tungsten sources. Additional tungsten projects include El Moto and P6 Metals in Spain.
Recycling capacity is expanding through Northvolt Revolt’s NorthCYCLE in Sweden, Fortum Battery Recycling’s Hydromet in Finland, Orano Batteries’ hydrometallurgy project in France, Elemental Battery Metals’ POLVOLT in Poland and Portovesme’s CRM Hub in Italy. Large-scale end-of-life battery and magnet feedstock is expected to become more abundant mainly after 2030, limiting near-term recycling volumes.
Financing requirements run into tens of billions
The European pipeline requires substantial capital.
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Vulcan Lionheart: approximately €2.2 billion
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Keliber: approximately €783 million construction investment, plus €500 million green financing and €200 million shareholder support
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Talga’s integrated mine and anode platform: discussed above €500 million
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San José lithium project in Spain: €1.192 billion pre-production CAPEX before contingencies and €1.430 billion after contingencies
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Skouries: US$1.315 billion Phase 2 capital
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Caremag: approximately €216 million
The G7 has cited €64 billion of investment across 195 critical minerals projects since the start of 2026, while the EU’s RESourceEU plan aims to mobilise around €3 billion within 12 months for priority projects.
Auditors warn targets remain non-binding
The European Court of Auditors has warned that CRMA targets are non-binding, import diversification has produced limited tangible results, domestic production faces bottlenecks, and recycling remains underdeveloped.
Permitting remains a major execution risk despite official maximum timelines of 27 months for extraction projects and 15 months for processing and recycling projects.
Projects including Barroso in Portugal, San José in Spain, Sakatti in Finland and Fen in Norway continue to face environmental, water-use or community-related permitting challenges.
2030 outlook points to uneven progress
A probability-weighted assessment suggests Europe is likely to make significant progress in lithium, copper, gallium, selected graphite and tungsten projects, while remaining below the headline 10% extraction target for several strategic materials by 2030.
Processing capacity appears more likely to advance, particularly in lithium hydroxide, gallium recovery and selected battery-recycling chains, while rare earth magnets, graphite anodes and full rare earth independence are expected to remain more challenging.
Supply diversification will increasingly rely on partnerships with countries including Canada, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Norway, Greenland, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Serbia, Japan, South Korea and the United States.
Europe’s critical minerals strategy is therefore shifting from policy design toward execution, with success increasingly dependent on permitting, financing, offtake agreements, processing infrastructure, water management and customer qualification rather than project announcements alone.
