Asia’s LNG market is recovering after a disruption linked to the Iran conflict that temporarily removed nearly 20% of global supply routes and destabilized regional trade flows. Data compiled by commodity analytics firm Kpler projects Asia’s LNG imports to reach 21.83 million metric tons in June. The forecast is slightly above the 21.55 million tons recorded in June last year.
Iran-linked disruption affects Middle East shipping routes
Earlier in the year, Asian LNG markets saw volatility as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. After military strikes involving the US and Israel on Iran in late February, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were effectively disrupted. This affected flows from exporters including Qatar, which shipped 80.9 million tons of LNG in 2025.
Following the disruption, Asia’s LNG imports declined to a six-year low of 18.74 million tons in April. The contraction reflected one of the sharpest short-term drops in recent years.
China spot purchases recover after North Asia price spike
China, the world’s largest LNG importer, was central to the recent market swings. In 2025, it imported 66.48 million tons, slightly ahead of Japan. In early 2026, Chinese utilities reduced spot purchases as prices rose after the Iran-related supply shock.
Spot LNG prices delivered to North Asia increased to $25.30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in late March, up from $10.40 pre-conflict levels, a rise of 143%. Prices later eased to $16.05 mmBtu in mid-April before rebounding to $18.80 mmBtu by early June.
Kpler expects China’s imports to recover, forecasting 4.48 million tons in June. This would be slightly below May’s four-month peak of 4.74 million tons but higher than March and April lows.
Japan increases LNG demand while South Korea remains softer
Japan is also strengthening LNG purchasing following earlier volatility. Imports are expected to reach 5.33 million tons in June, described as a three-month high and above levels seen a year earlier.
South Korea’s outlook is more moderate. Kpler forecasts June imports at 3.26 million tons, slightly below May’s 3.37 million tons and June last year’s 3.48 million tons.
India rebounds as supply diversifies beyond Qatar
South Asia was among the most affected regions after Qatari exports were disrupted. India’s LNG imports fell to a three-year low of 1.67 million tons in March amid supply constraints and price sensitivity.
Demand is now recovering, with imports projected at 2.09 million tons in June. That would be nearly aligned with last year’s level of 2.11 million tons.
The recovery is tied to diversification efforts, with India sourcing LNG from Angola, Nigeria, and the United States.
Pakistan faces tight supply conditions despite some improvement
Pakistan remains heavily reliant on Qatari LNG and continues to face challenges diversifying supplies. June imports are projected at just 210,000 tons compared with 620,000 tons in June 2025.
The country has secured limited spot cargoes, including shipments from Oman and Qatar. While this would represent a recovery from April’s 10-year low of 70,000 tons, supply conditions are still described as tight and structurally constrained.
US LNG exports shift between Asia and Europe
On the supply side, US LNG exports surged into Asia immediately after the Iran-related disruption but are now normalizing. Shipments to Asia are expected to fall to 2.73 million tons in June from a record 4.07 million tons in May.
The forecast remains above pre-conflict averages of around 1.15 million tons per month.
At the same time, US LNG exports to Europe are rising again. Kpler estimates European-bound volumes at 4.99 million tons in June versus 4.53 million in May, indicating a renewed pivot toward Europe after lower inflows since late 2024.
LNG market stabilizes after Middle East volatility
The latest data indicates the global LNG market is gradually stabilizing following extreme volatility tied to geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. The developments highlighted include recovery in Asian demand led by China and Japan and gradual normalization of supply chains after the Iran conflict.
Other trends cited are increasing import diversification in India and persistent structural weakness in Pakistan alongside rebalancing of US LNG flows between Asia and Europe.
