The global minerals industry is increasingly separating into markets with tight strategic supply and commodities facing persistent physical abundance. Copper, tin, gold and strategic minor metals are trading at elevated levels, while lithium and cobalt have recovered following production restraint. Nickel remains constrained by Indonesia’s expanding capacity, whereas iron ore, lead and several bulk construction materials continue to face ample supply. Control over refining and exports has become an increasingly important factor alongside geological availability.
The World Bank’s metals and minerals index increased by about 20% during the first five months of 2026, reaching a record nominal level. The bank expects the index to average 17% higher in 2026, followed by an estimated 7% decline in 2027. Annual-average gains of about 20% are projected for copper, aluminium and tin, with smaller increases for nickel and zinc. Iron ore remains the principal exception.
Copper Supply Falls Behind Projected Demand
Copper has emerged as the central structural issue in the minerals market, with prices trading at approximately $13,000–14,000 a tonne. Consumption is being supported by electricity networks, renewable power generation, electric transport, data centres, defence and conventional urbanisation, while new mine development has failed to keep pace.
Long permitting timelines, declining ore grades and capital requirements exceeding $5 billion for large projects are limiting supply growth. The resulting pressure is already visible in the concentrate market.
Chinese smelting capacity has expanded more rapidly than mine production, pushing treatment charges to zero or below. China now represents roughly half of global copper smelting capacity, while utilisation rates at many plants outside the country are substantially lower. The imbalance does not necessarily translate into an immediate shortage of refined copper, but it leaves the supply chain exposed to disruptions at mines and smelters.
Mining investment has increased, but not enough to close the projected gap. Global copper spending rose approximately 8% in 2025, while copper accounted for the largest share of mining mergers and acquisitions. Under current project trajectories, projected supply remains about 25% below expected 2035 requirements. Recycling, substitution and slower demand growth are expected to narrow the shortfall without eliminating it.
Aluminium Supply Is Increasingly Linked to Power
Aluminium prices briefly exceeded $3,700 a tonne following disruption to Middle Eastern smelting before falling toward $3,150. The market is increasingly shaped by electricity costs and trade barriers.
China remains the largest producer, although its capacity ceiling and rising electricity requirements constrain further expansion. Meanwhile, low-carbon aluminium produced using hydropower in Canada, Norway, Iceland and parts of Russia is increasingly treated as commercially distinct from aluminium produced using coal-based electricity.
Zinc has benefited from weak smelter performance, while tin has advanced by approximately 27% during the first half of 2026. The relatively small size of the tin market leaves it particularly sensitive to supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Electronics solder remains the principal source of demand, with solar equipment and electrical applications providing additional consumption.
Lead remains well supplied because of high recycling rates and substantial exchange inventories. Nickel has also remained oversupplied despite temporary rallies triggered by policy decisions. Indonesia has transformed from an ore exporter into the dominant producer of nickel products, stainless-steel feed and battery intermediates. Production quotas can generate short-term price increases, but installed capacity and inventories continue to limit sustained gains.
The environmental intensity of Indonesian production and its reliance on coal-based electricity could eventually create a distinction between conventional nickel and lower-carbon grades.
Iron Ore Faces Ample Supply
Iron ore is experiencing conditions opposite to those affecting copper. BHP produced a record 291.2 million tonnes in Western Australia during its 2026 financial year, while Rio Tinto recorded its strongest quarterly Pilbara shipments since 2020. Brazilian production is recovering, and Simandou is adding a new source of high-grade ore. China’s property sector, historically the largest driver of steel demand, remains weak. As steelmakers reduce emissions, high-grade ore and direct-reduction pellets are expected to perform better than ordinary fines, although the global iron ore market continues to have sufficient physical supply.
BHP’s approval of the $900 million Ministers North project is focused on replacing depleted capacity rather than responding to a new demand surge. Steel producers also face excess capacity, low utilisation and increasingly restrictive trade measures.
Gold and Silver Trade on Monetary and Industrial Demand
Gold is increasingly functioning as both a mined commodity and a monetary and geopolitical asset. At approximately $4,015 an ounce, the metal remains below its early-2026 record but continues to receive support from central-bank diversification, fiscal concerns, geopolitical conflict and demand for assets outside the dollar-based financial system. Higher yields can trigger abrupt corrections, although the strategic buying base supporting gold is stronger than during previous market cycles.
Silver combines monetary demand with industrial consumption in solar cells, electronics and electrical equipment. Its decline from January’s extreme price peak demonstrates the market’s volatility without eliminating underlying industrial demand. Manufacturers continue to reduce the quantity of silver used in individual solar cells, but increasing solar installations are offsetting much of the resulting reduction in consumption per unit.
Platinum Markets Remain Supply-Constrained
Platinum continues to benefit from recurring deficits and falling above-ground inventories. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a deficit of approximately 297,000 ounces in 2026, with larger average deficits expected later in the decade. Palladium and rhodium have greater exposure to the eventual decline in internal-combustion vehicles. However, hybrid sales and slower electric-vehicle adoption in North America have delayed that adjustment. Conditions affecting South African electricity supply, infrastructure and capital availability remain critical to the wider platinum-group metals supply chain.
Battery Metals Recover After Production Cuts
The downturn in battery metals has ended, but the recovery is not being driven solely by stronger demand. Lithium prices have more than doubled from their 2025 lows following production reductions and disruptions in China. Cobalt prices increased by approximately 130% after the Democratic Republic of Congo restricted exports. Nickel also rallied after Indonesia tightened production quotas before weakening again as expectations of additional supply returned. Battery deployment has continued to expand. Global lithium-ion deployment during 2025 was approximately six times its 2020 level. Electric vehicles represented about 70% of deployment, while grid storage accounted for approximately 15%. Grid-storage installations have increased more than twentyfold over five years.
Battery chemistry is altering the balance of mineral demand. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries account for roughly half of automotive and stationary-storage demand, removing nickel and cobalt from an increasing proportion of applications.
At the same time, larger battery packs have prevented average nickel and cobalt consumption per vehicle from declining substantially, while lithium consumption per vehicle increased by approximately 7%.
EV Growth Becomes More Regionally Diverse
Electric-vehicle demand is diverging sharply by region. During the first five months of 2026, European sales increased by approximately 26%, while emerging markets outside China recorded growth of almost 90%. North American and Chinese markets contracted. The resulting battery-material market is becoming less dependent on a single demand centre while becoming more exposed to regional trade measures and localisation requirements.
Capital spending, however, has not matched longer-term supply requirements. Critical-mineral capital expenditure declined by approximately 9% in 2025, battery-metal investment fell by roughly 20%, and lithium investment dropped by around 40%. Exploration budgets for lithium and nickel fell even more sharply. The current price recovery therefore follows a period in which mining companies postponed or cancelled projects needed to meet early-2030s requirements.
China’s Processing Dominance Reshapes Technology Metals
Technology materials are increasingly operating outside conventional commodity-market pricing. China dominates processing of natural graphite, rare earths, gallium, germanium, tungsten and several other specialised materials. Export licensing has generated shortages and regional price differences even where geological resources are sufficient globally.
Gallium is used in compound semiconductors and high-frequency electronics. Germanium is required for fibre optics, infrared systems and solar cells, while tungsten is used in cutting tools, aerospace components and ammunition. Heavy rare earths are required for high-performance permanent magnets.
Yttrium, tellurium, antimony and bismuth occupy similarly small but essential roles. Their markets cannot respond quickly to shortages because separation chemistry, qualification procedures and customer testing can require years. China’s restrictions are prompting new investment in the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan and Europe. MP Materials, Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources are expanding rare-earth capacity outside China, while governments are using price floors, loans and guaranteed purchases to shield projects from Chinese price competition. The strategic focus is consequently extending beyond mine ownership to include separation, metal production, alloy manufacturing and magnet production.
Uranium Enters a New Contracting Cycle
Nuclear minerals are entering another contracting phase. Kazakhstan, Canada and Namibia provide approximately three-quarters of global uranium mine production, while utilities are returning to longer-term contracts as reactor lifetimes are extended, new plants are built in China and the Middle East, and small-modular-reactor programmes advance. The tighter part of the nuclear fuel chain is conversion and enrichment rather than uranium mining itself. Russia remains a major provider of both services, while replacing its capacity requires years of construction.
Urenco is expanding in the United States, while Orano is increasing French capacity. Western utilities are paying higher prices to rebuild a fuel cycle that has become heavily concentrated. Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian transport routes and the nationalisation dispute involving Orano’s Niger assets add further geopolitical exposure. Thorium remains a development-stage option rather than a significant commercial mineral market. Zirconium, hafnium and beryllium are more immediately relevant to reactor components, control systems and specialised nuclear alloys, although their markets are small and strongly dependent on specifications.
Sulphur and Fertiliser Markets Face Supply Disruptions
Industrial non-metals are being affected by energy and agricultural-market conditions. The disruption of Middle Eastern sulphur supplies demonstrated the vulnerability of phosphate fertiliser production and hydrometallurgical processing. The region normally represents approximately one-quarter of global sulphur output and a substantially larger share of seaborne trade. Temporary prices approaching $1,000 a tonne forced phosphate producers to reduce output and increased processing costs for nickel, copper and battery materials.
Phosphate fertiliser remains expensive, while urea has declined toward approximately $475 a tonne as seasonal demand weakened and expectations grew that Chinese exports would resume. Potash is comparatively well supplied, although trade involving Belarus and Russia remains politically sensitive. Higher Indian fertiliser subsidies and strong agricultural demand provide support, while affordability is limiting application rates in poorer importing markets.
Graphite Remains Both Oversupplied and Strategically Scarce
Graphite illustrates the division between physical availability and qualified supply. Chinese synthetic-graphite production expanded rapidly during 2025, putting pressure on conventional prices. Outside China, however, qualified battery-grade graphite remains limited. Natural-graphite producers are therefore dealing with weak spot prices while downstream anode-material projects continue to receive government support.
Fluorspar, high-purity quartz, silicon metal, helium and industrial gases are benefiting from investment in semiconductors, solar power, batteries and aerospace. Conventional silica sand, soda ash, kaolin and feldspar remain closely connected to glass, ceramics and construction. Barite follows oil and gas drilling activity, while magnesite and refractory minerals remain linked to steel production and high-temperature industrial output.
Construction Minerals Track Regional Economic Conditions
Construction minerals reflect the divergence between major economies. China’s property contraction continues to weigh on cement, aggregates, glass and ceramics. India remains the strongest major growth market. UltraTech Cement reported a 13.1% increase in domestic volumes to 39.2 million tonnes for the quarter and is preparing almost 46 million tonnes of additional annual capacity over the following two financial years.
Infrastructure and urbanisation are also supporting demand in Southeast Asia, the Gulf and parts of Africa. Cement producers globally face higher fuel, shipping and carbon costs, although the ability to pass those costs through to customers depends on local competition. Aggregates and ready-mixed concrete remain predominantly local businesses because transport costs can quickly exceed the value of the mineral itself. Clinker, gypsum and cement are more widely traded internationally, particularly where coastal terminals provide access to lower-cost production from Asia, Turkey, Egypt and Vietnam.
Lower-Carbon Materials Gain Industrial Value
The fastest-growing construction-material segment is increasingly shifting away from conventional cement. Calcined clay, natural pozzolan, ground slag, recycled aggregates and construction-demolition waste are gaining strategic importance because they reduce clinker requirements and embodied carbon. The future closure of coal-fired power plants and blast furnaces will reduce supplies of traditional fly ash and slag, increasing pressure on producers to develop alternative supplementary materials.
