Europe’s transition toward electrification, renewable energy and advanced digital infrastructure is increasingly constrained by the availability of specialist metals rather than technology deployment, according to the 2026 Raw Materials for Future Technologies study published by the German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA).
Prepared by Fraunhofer ISI and Fraunhofer IZM, the study evaluates more than 200 emerging technologies and provides detailed analysis of 34 technologies, estimating their annual raw-material requirements to 2045 under three development scenarios.
Rather than forecasting commodity markets, the assessment compares projected annual demand in 2045 with actual global primary production in 2023, identifying where mining, refining, processing and recycling capacity may struggle to support future industrial expansion.
Critical minerals emerge as key supply constraints
The report concludes that the greatest supply risks are concentrated in relatively small, highly specialised commodity markets where production is geographically concentrated, metals are commonly recovered as by-products and processing capacity is controlled by a limited number of countries.
Among the most constrained materials is iridium, where annual demand under DERA’s Sustainability Transformation scenario could reach approximately 85 tonnes by 2045, equivalent to around 12.5 times total global production in 2023. Most of the projected increase is linked to proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers used in low-carbon hydrogen production.
Lithium represents another major pressure point. Demand from the technologies assessed could rise to approximately 950,000 tonnes annually by 2045, equal to 4.7 times global mine production in 2023. The study also projects demand for scandium reaching 50 tonnes, or 2.6 times current production, while demand for the heavy rare earth elements dysprosium and terbium could total approximately 7,100 tonnes, exceeding twice 2023 output. DERA emphasises that these comparisons illustrate the scale of industrial expansion required rather than predicting future supply levels, prices, substitution or recycling rates.
Mining and refining timelines lag manufacturing expansion
The assessment identifies a widening gap between the speed at which industrial equipment can be manufactured and the considerably longer development timelines required for mines, processing facilities and specialist-metal recovery operations. Battery manufacturing facilities can be constructed within a few years, while new lithium or copper mines frequently require more than a decade to permit, finance and develop.
Supply expansion is even more challenging for by-product metals such as iridium, germanium and gallium, which are generally recovered during production of other commodities rather than mined independently. The Sustainability Transformation scenario assumes rapid electrification, international cooperation and climate policies aligned with the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions pathway. Under this scenario, improvements in material efficiency do not eliminate demand for primary minerals because construction of a new energy system requires substantial volumes of metals during its expansion phase.
Battery technologies redistribute mineral demand
Electric vehicles and stationary battery storage place lithium and graphite among the commodities facing the strongest projected demand growth. DERA estimates graphite consumption from the assessed technologies could reach approximately 2.3 million tonnes annually by 2045, equal to around 1.6 times global production in 2023. Demand for cobalt could increase to approximately 260,000 tonnes, equivalent to 1.3 times current mine supply. Changing battery chemistries alter exposure to different commodities without removing dependence on critical minerals. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries reduce reliance on nickel and cobalt, while continuing to require significant quantities of lithium and graphite.
High-nickel cathodes reduce cobalt intensity but increase dependence on high-grade nickel supply. Silicon-enriched anodes may reduce graphite requirements, although commercial adoption and long-term technical performance remain uncertain. Many solid-state battery designs would continue to require substantial lithium volumes, particularly those using lithium-metal anodes.
Stationary storage technologies offer greater scope for diversification through LFP, sodium-ion and redox-flow batteries. DERA notes that widespread deployment of vanadium redox-flow batteries could increase annual vanadium demand to approximately 74,000 tonnes, compared with global production of around 100,000 tonnes in 2023. Recovery, leasing and reuse of vanadium electrolyte could reduce future primary metal requirements.
Rare earth supply linked to electrification
Permanent-magnet synchronous motors used in electric vehicles require neodymium and praseodymium, while dysprosium and terbium improve performance at elevated operating temperatures. The same permanent magnet materials are used in wind turbines, industrial motors, heat pumps and air-conditioning systems. Under the sustainability scenario, demand for light rare earth elements could reach approximately 83,000 tonnes, while heavy rare earth demand may increase to around 7,100 tonnes.
The report identifies heavy rare earths as a greater strategic challenge because production and separation capacity remain concentrated within relatively small markets. Alternative motor technologies, geared wind turbine drivetrains and improvements in magnet design can reduce exposure to critical rare earth elements, although these solutions influence efficiency, operating temperature, maintenance requirements and lifecycle costs. DERA concludes that technology selection increasingly determines long-term raw-material exposure across industrial portfolios.
Hydrogen expansion depends on iridium availability
The report identifies PEM electrolysers as the largest single source of projected iridium demand. Global iridium production totalled approximately 6.8 tonnes in 2023, while future technology demand could reach 85 tonnes under the Sustainability Transformation scenario and approximately 54 tonnes under the Development Barriers scenario.
Iridium production is closely linked to platinum-group metal mining and refining, particularly in southern Africa, limiting opportunities for rapid supply expansion. DERA identifies lower catalyst loadings, improved electrode designs, higher electrolyser utilisation and recovery of iridium from end-of-life equipment as key measures for reducing future demand.
Alternative electrolyser technologies, including alkaline and anion-exchange membrane systems, may also reduce dependence on iridium while introducing different technical characteristics. The report notes that future hydrogen projects will increasingly depend on catalyst availability, material efficiency and closed-loop recovery systems in addition to installed electrolyser capacity.
Specialist metals support digital infrastructure
DERA identifies a separate group of critical minerals associated with digitalisation, data centres and artificial intelligence. Under the Rapid Growth scenario, demand for platinum, ruthenium, germanium, gallium, tantalum and rhenium increases significantly. Projected platinum demand from future technologies reaches approximately 380 tonnes by 2045, exceeding twice global production in 2023, primarily through high-performance data-storage applications.cDemand for germanium could rise to approximately 330 tonnes, equal to 1.6 times 2023 production, driven by fibre-optic communications, satellites, infrared technologies and high-efficiency solar cells.
Gallium demand could reach approximately 250 tonnes, remaining below estimated current production but remaining strategically important because refining capacity is concentrated and gallium is recovered as a by-product of bauxite and zinc processing. DERA projects tantalum demand of approximately 2,300 tonnes, equivalent to 1.3-1.4 times 2023 production, while rhenium demand could reach 140 tonnes, or 1.6 times current output.
Copper remains fundamental to electrification
The report identifies copper as the principal bulk material underpinning both the energy and digital transitions. Transmission networks, renewable-energy generation, electric vehicles, batteries, motors, cooling systems, heat pumps and data centres all require substantial quantities of copper. DERA estimates that the technologies assessed could consume between 11 million and 14 million tonnes of copper annually by 2045, representing approximately 50-60% of total global mine production in 2023.
This demand would be additional to copper required for conventional construction, industrial manufacturing and existing electrical infrastructure. Unlike specialist metals, copper benefits from a large and geographically diverse market. Expanding production requires major capital investment, lengthy permitting processes, new infrastructure and development of increasingly lower-grade ore bodies under growing water and environmental constraints.
Renewable technologies expand mineral demand
Wind turbines require significant volumes of steel, concrete, copper, aluminium, composites and, in certain drivetrain configurations, permanent magnets. Offshore wind developments have higher material intensity because of foundations, subsea cables, substations and long transmission connections.
Solar photovoltaic systems consume silicon, silver, copper and aluminium, while thin-film technologies also require indium, gallium, selenium or tellurium. Although silver consumption per watt has declined, expanding solar deployment could continue to absorb a significant share of efficiency gains.
Heat pumps add further demand for copper, aluminium, steel and potentially rare earth magnets through compressors, motors, heat exchangers and electronic control systems. The report also identifies substantial infrastructure requirements associated with carbon capture, direct air capture, synthetic fuels and small modular reactors, while noting that future fusion technologies could create demand for tungsten, lithium, beryllium and superconducting materials.
Processing capacity becomes strategic priority
DERA concludes that securing future mineral supply extends beyond developing new mines. Many strategic materials, including gallium, germanium, indium, rhenium, scandium and several platinum-group metals, are recovered from processing streams associated with host metals. Supply security therefore increasingly depends on the location and capability of smelters, refineries and residue-treatment facilities.
The report identifies opportunities for existing metallurgical regions in Europe and neighbouring south-eastern European countries including Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. These regions possess combinations of copper, zinc, lead, bauxite, nickel, antimony and polymetallic resources together with legacy processing facilities, engineering expertise and electricity infrastructure.
Potential development extends beyond increased mining to recovery of minor metals from concentrates, tailings, slags, flue dust, red mud and refinery residues, alongside production of higher-purity intermediate products for European battery, magnet, semiconductor and aerospace industries. DERA identifies integrated projects capable of delivering battery-grade lithium chemicals, spherical purified graphite, separated rare earth oxides, magnet alloys, semiconductor-grade gallium and germanium, and recovered platinum-group metals as strategically significant within future European manufacturing supply chains.
The report also notes that recycling will become increasingly important but cannot immediately replace primary supply because many rapidly expanding technologies will remain in service for years before reaching end-of-life. Manufacturing scrap, spent catalysts, electronic equipment and industrial residues therefore represent the earliest opportunities for secondary raw-material recovery, while product design and recovery systems established during installation will determine future recycling efficiency.
