Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are positioning themselves as pivotal players in the global tungsten market, challenging China’s historical dominance. The recent spike in tungsten prices, coupled with China’s stringent export controls, has drawn significant interest from international stakeholders, particularly from the United States and Europe.
Tungsten is increasingly recognized for its strategic importance across various sectors, including defense systems, aerospace alloys, cutting tools, and semiconductor manufacturing. The material was officially classified by NATO as one of 12 defense-critical raw materials in December 2024, while the US identified it as a “highest-risk” mineral in its 2025 Critical Minerals list.
Currently, global tungsten supply is heavily reliant on China, which accounted for over 80% of mined tungsten production in 2024. The United States has not engaged in domestic tungsten mining since 2015, making it dependent on imports and recycled materials. Prices have surged dramatically; for instance, Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) increased from approximately $340 per metric ton in early 2025 to over $1,100 by early 2026.
Kazakhstan is emerging as a testing ground for non-Chinese tungsten production. A US-backed joint venture is set to develop the Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty deposits, which are among the largest undeveloped tungsten resources globally. Supported by the US Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation, this project could potentially contribute 15% of global tungsten output by its expected production start in 2029, pending necessary approvals.
In contrast, China has already established operations in Kazakhstan. Jiaxin International Resources Investment, which is majority-owned by Jiangxi Copper, began commercial production at the Bakuta open-pit mine in 2025, yielding 3.3 million tonnes of tungsten ore. Kazakhstan’s proximity to China and stable policy environment make it an attractive location for Chinese investments.
Uzbekistan is also ramping up its efforts to enter the tungsten market. The Turkish-owned K-Tungsten project in the Navoiy region has drilled over 60,000 meters since mid-2025 and aims to commence production by 2028. Recent revisions to subsoil legislation prioritize strategic minerals and support local processing initiatives through a newly launched Technological Metals Complex. By 2030, Uzbekistan could account for nearly 15% of global tungsten extraction, a significant increase from its current share of just 0.005%.
The geopolitical landscape surrounding Central Asia’s mineral resources is complex. Both the US and China are vying for access to these critical minerals amid rising global competition. Experts note that while the US may struggle to match China’s processing capabilities, securing tungsten supplies from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is crucial for diversifying supply chains.
Investors are drawn to Kazakhstan’s political stability and abundant resources, alongside its favorable relations with major powers like China, the US, and Russia. Uzbekistan’s approach is characterized by openness to all investors while emphasizing local processing capacity development.
However, projects in these regions face notable challenges. Harsh winters and inadequate infrastructure could delay production timelines. Additionally, rising capital expenditures pose risks for drilling-intensive projects. Compliance with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards and navigating cross-border political dynamics remain essential considerations even for established operations backed by Chinese investment.
Despite these obstacles, the potential rewards are substantial. If Kazakhstan secures a significant share of non-Chinese tungsten supply while Uzbekistan enhances both mining and processing capabilities, Central Asia could emerge as a key player in the global tungsten market within a decade. This shift would not only reshape supply dynamics but would also complement rather than replace China’s existing influence.
The ongoing developments in Central Asia’s tungsten sector reflect broader geopolitical and economic trends. Resource-rich nations are increasingly leveraging their strategic minerals alongside supportive policies and foreign investments to assert their influence within critical supply chains. As Western buyers prioritize secure and diversified sources of tungsten, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan stand at a historic juncture with the opportunity to redefine their roles within this high-stakes arena.
