AMG Critical Materials, a Dutch-listed company, raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to approximately 249 million euros on 5 November, citing stronger lithium and tantalum operations in Brazil. The forecast is up from its previous range of roughly 205 million to 223 million euros, but represents expected operating earnings, not cash committed to a specific investment.
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 22% year on year to approximately 69.1 million euros, while revenue was about 420.1 million euros, AMG reported. The Brazilian operations supporting the improved outlook are part of the company’s upstream business.
Brazilian output and prices improve
AMG sold 23,672 dry tonnes of lithium concentrate in the quarter, compared with 15,409 tonnes a year earlier. Its average realised price rose to about 1,158 euros per tonne from approximately 472 euros, on a cost-insurance-freight China pricing basis.
Adjusted EBITDA in the lithium division climbed to approximately 32.7 million euros from 2.6 million euros. AMG attributed the earnings improvement to higher concentrate volumes, lower reported net production costs and favourable lithium and tantalum prices.
Stronger tantalum prices and sales also improved the economics of AMG’s Brazilian mining operation. The company’s results show the contribution that by-product revenues make to the economics of hard-rock lithium mining.
Bitterfeld refinery remains in ramp-up
In eastern Germany, AMG is developing a lithium hydroxide refinery at Bitterfeld. The company said the facility was consistently producing material within technical specifications and selling product that had not yet completed customer qualification.
The refinery remains in a ramp-up phase. Its in-specification output does not represent established deliveries to fully qualified battery customers.
AMG is engineering a 5,000-tonne conversion facility at Bitterfeld to process lithium carbonate, including recycled material, into technical-grade lithium hydroxide for the site’s main upgrading operations. Estimated capital expenditure is approximately 44.5 million euros.
A German federal grant announced in December 2025 is expected to cover 20% of the estimated cost, or roughly 8.9 million euros. AMG’s November statement did not confirm a new disbursement of the grant.
Strategic recognition and liquidity
In October, the European Commission recognised AMG’s Bitterfeld refining and recycling hub and its Zinnwald integrated lithium development as strategic projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act. The designation may improve visibility and administrative coordination, but it is not an investment decision, construction financing or a binding customer offtake contract.
AMG ended September with approximately 490 million euros in group liquidity, including cash and an available revolving credit facility. That liquidity provides financial flexibility but does not establish that the proposed conversion plant is fully funded or that commissioning milestones have been reached.
AMG’s Brazilian business and German refining plans span upstream production and European processing. Establishing a reliable regional battery-materials supply chain still requires customer qualification, operational ramp-up and traceable physical flows, rather than corporate ownership alone.
