When most observers think of Russia’s global influence, the mental image is dominated by oil rigs, sprawling gas pipelines, and LNG exports. For decades, energy defined Moscow’s leverage. Yet beneath this familiar narrative lies a less recognised reality: Russia is not only a hydrocarbon superpower — it is one of the world’s leading mineral and metals powers, with vast resources essential to clean energy, advanced manufacturing, defence, and industrial supply chains.
While Western policymakers have focused on energy, they have largely overlooked Russia’s strategic mineral wealth. Sanctions intended to curb Moscow have instead rerouted its resource flows eastward, strengthening global competitors — most notably China.
Geological Scale and Untapped Potential
Russia’s resource advantage begins with geography. Covering 17.1 million square kilometres, it is the world’s largest mining jurisdiction, with unparalleled geological diversity. Ancient cratons, sedimentary basins, and mineral-rich shield regions underpin enormous reserves of nickel, palladium, titanium, gold, uranium, rare earth elements (REEs), and platinum-group metals.
Domestic estimates value Russia’s geological endowment at around $75 trillion. Yet vast regions in Siberia, the Far East, and the Arctic remain underexplored, meaning Russia’s known resources are only a fraction of its potential.
Mineral Production and Industrial Capacity: A Strategic Advantage
Russia ranks third globally in total mineral production, generating roughly 1.6 billion metric tons annually. Key highlights include:
-
Gold: Russia holds about 12,000 tons, nearly 20% of global reserves.
-
Nickel: Around 6% of global production, with Norilsk Nickel supplying high-grade EV battery material.
-
Aluminium: Approximately 5% of global output, supported by abundant energy.
-
Palladium: Over 40% of refined global supply, critical for automotive, aerospace, and electronics.
-
Uranium: Controls roughly 44% of global enrichment capacity, a key chokepoint in nuclear fuel supply.
Russia’s strength is amplified by its industrial base: more than 36,000 processing enterprises capable of refining and transforming minerals into high-value industrial products. This vertically integrated system, a legacy of Soviet planning, allows rapid scaling of production when required.
The Rerouting Effect: Sanctions and China’s Gain
Western sanctions were intended to isolate Russia, yet they largely redirected its mineral trade from Europe to China and Asia.
-
Russia’s aluminium exports to China surged, with its share rising to over 25% of Chinese imports.
-
Nickel, copper, and other key metals flowed eastward, supplying China’s industrial, automotive, and energy sectors.
-
Fertilizer exports also pivoted toward BRICS and Asian markets.
Rather than weakening Russia, sanctions strengthened China’s access to discounted resources, giving Beijing enhanced control over global industrial supply chains.
Central Asia: Extending Influence Through Infrastructure
Russia’s mineral leverage also reaches Central Asia. Kazakhstan, producing over 40% of global uranium, still routes much of it through Russian enrichment facilities, creating downstream dependencies. Annual trade between Russia and Kazakhstan exceeds $30 billion, spanning minerals, processing, and logistics. Similar relationships reinforce Russian influence across Eurasia, extending its industrial and geopolitical reach.
Russia’s eastward pivot carries a strategic cost: growing dependence on China. China accounted for around 30% of Russian exports and half of its imports. While Moscow benefits financially, it risks becoming a resource appendage in China’s industrial machine, a structural imbalance openly discussed by analysts.
Ready to Scale: Russia’s Strategic Mineral Strength
Despite geopolitical pressures, Russia remains a formidable mineral power:
-
Over 230,000 tons of nickel annually, crucial for batteries.
-
Over 40% of global palladium supply, essential for automotive and electronics sectors.
-
Large rare earth element reserves with industrial capacity for rapid conversion.
Low energy costs, extensive rail and port infrastructure, and a highly experienced workforce enable Russia to expand output faster than most other jurisdictions, particularly in markets critical to the green transition.
Russia offers one of the fastest and most scalable solutions to global mineral shortages. Yet Western policy has excluded it, inadvertently strengthening China’s industrial dominance. Conditional engagement — reopening selective mineral trade under transparent terms — could:
-
Reduce Chinese leverage in global refining and minerals.
-
Stabilize critical mineral availability.
-
Rebalance Russia’s role in international trade.
While politically complex, such a strategy may be increasingly difficult to ignore.
