The United States must take a more proactive role in shaping the future of seabed mining by developing a comprehensive policy that integrates ocean science, national security, geopolitics and economics. As global demand for rare earth minerals rises and supply chains become more uncertain, it is essential that the U.S. steps off the sidelines and leads efforts to design fair, science-based rules around deep seabed mining. China’s rapid advancements in seabed mining and its influence in shaping the international framework for resource extraction call for U.S. leadership to ensure that future seabed mining aligns with U.S. national interests and global environmental standards.
The problem
The competition for advanced energy technologies and high-tech manufacturing—particularly for electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries—is intensifying worldwide. This includes securing rare earth minerals essential for these technologies, and whoever controls these resources will have the upper hand in shaping global energy, economic, and military landscapes. The global race to secure critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel is already well underway, with countries such as China leading the charge. As demand for these minerals is expected to double by 2040, the U.S. must focus on securing its own access to these resources and avoid being left behind in this high-stakes competition.
Great power competition
The ongoing geopolitical struggle between China and the U.S. over technological supremacy is further compounded by competition for rare earth minerals. China has already secured a dominant position in both the extraction and refining of critical minerals, leaving the U.S. and its allies vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Currently, China controls 60% of global rare earth production and 85% of the processing capacity, and it has positioned itself to dominate the future of seabed mining, which holds vast deposits of these crucial minerals.
The International Seabed Authority (ISA)
The deep ocean floor is now seen as the next frontier for extracting critical minerals. The International Seabed Authority (ISA), established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), is responsible for regulating seabed mining. However, the U.S., which has not ratified UNCLOS, currently does not have a formal role in shaping the governance of seabed mining. China, on the other hand, has made significant investments in seabed exploration and is exerting considerable influence in the ISA’s decision-making process. With five seabed mining exploration contracts, China is already positioned to lead the way in exploiting these resources.
The ISA’s current regulatory framework for seabed mining is still under development, and negotiations have yet to address key concerns, such as environmental data requirements, compliance, and enforcement mechanisms. In this evolving landscape, U.S. leadership is critical to ensuring that seabed mining regulations are balanced, scientifically sound, and aligned with broader economic and environmental goals.
A new era at the ISA
The appointment of Brazilian oceanographer Leticia Carvalho as the new Secretary General of the ISA in January 2025 marks a pivotal moment in the development of seabed mining regulations. Under her leadership, the ISA will need to navigate complex governance decisions related to permitting, environmental protection, and equity. The U.S. has an opportunity to engage in meaningful dialogue with the ISA, as well as with its allies and coastal states, to advocate for policies that align with its strategic interests.
While at least 32 nations have called for a “precautionary pause” on seabed mining to allow time for the development of effective regulations, China is poised to move forward. The U.S. must act swiftly to establish a coherent policy that secures its position and ensures a level playing field for all nations.
Policy recommendations
1. Conduct a comprehensive review of U.S. posture on seabed mining: The new U.S. administration should conduct a whole-of-government review to assess the country’s role in the ISA and its broader approach to seabed mining. This assessment should focus on aligning economic growth, national security, environmental concerns, and geopolitical strategy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
2. Leverage American strengths in science and data: U.S. negotiators should use the country’s world-leading expertise in marine science and data collection to counter China’s efforts to dominate seabed mining regulations. By sharing this expertise with allies and partners, the U.S. can strengthen its position in ISA discussions.
3. Collaborate across disciplines and borders: The U.S. should convene a roundtable of experts from diverse fields—ocean science, technology, national security, and environmental law—to inform its approach to seabed mining. This collaboration should also extend to bilateral engagements with international allies and coastal developing countries.
4. Advocate for a precautionary pause on mining: The U.S. should support a pause on seabed mining until the ISA finalizes regulations that ensure fair and responsible practices. This would give the U.S. time to advance its technological capabilities, strengthen its position with regional allies, and develop a consistent strategy on seabed mining.
5. Ratify UNCLOS and secure a seat at the table: To enhance its influence in global seabed mining governance, the U.S. should reconsider ratifying UNCLOS. This would provide the U.S. with a permanent seat on the ISA governing council, allowing it to advocate for its interests and prevent China from shaping decisions that undermine U.S. goals.
Conclusion
The United States cannot afford to remain passive in the emerging global race for seabed mining resources. With China moving rapidly to secure its dominance in seabed mining and shape the rules that will govern it, the U.S. must act now to assert its leadership. By developing a strong, science-based policy that integrates economic, environmental, and national security concerns, the U.S. can position itself to benefit from the growing demand for critical minerals while ensuring the responsible and equitable governance of the deep seabed.
