As the mining sector in Africa approaches 2026, the criteria for making final investment decisions (FID) are shifting dramatically. While geological potential and market demand remain important, the focus is increasingly on jurisdictional risk pricing. Over the last five years, African governments have adjusted their fiscal regimes, permitting processes, and local-content requirements, creating a complex landscape where only a select few countries consistently secure FID for large-scale projects.
Successful projects that achieve FID share several essential characteristics. Firstly, they offer fiscal predictability for at least the first decade of operations. Secondly, they demonstrate strong administrative capacity to handle permits and environmental approvals efficiently. Additionally, bankable state participation is crucial, typically limited to a 10-20% carried interest without open-ended clawbacks. Lastly, clarity in export and foreign exchange regulations is vital for revenue repatriation and servicing debts in hard currency. The absence of any of these pillars can lead to hesitance from capital providers, even for world-class deposits.
Côte d’Ivoire: A Model for FID Clearance
Côte d’Ivoire stands out as the most reliable jurisdiction for clearing FID in West Africa. Its combination of geological potential, administrative efficiency, and stable fiscal frameworks has attracted significant investment. Notable projects include the Doropo Gold Project by Resolute Mining, which involves a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of US$539 million and is expected to produce between 160,000 and 175,000 ounces per year with capped royalties and a 10% free-carried state interest. Similarly, Montage Gold’s Koné Gold Project has a CAPEX of US$800-900 million and anticipates peak production exceeding 300,000 ounces annually.
Since 2023, Côte d’Ivoire has secured between US$1.5 billion to US$2 billion in gold CAPEX and is projected to achieve over 1.5 million ounces per year by the late 2020s. This systemic approach to FID contrasts sharply with Guinea’s selective clearance process, which typically favors mega-projects that align with national infrastructure priorities.
The Democratic Republic of Congo: Balancing Risk with Scale
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to attract investment for its Tier-1 copper and cobalt assets despite significant political and regulatory risks. Projects like Kamoa-Kakula by Ivanhoe Mines require a phased CAPEX of US$6.2 billion but benefit from low operating costs and substantial hydropower resources. The scale of these projects often justifies the associated risks, allowing them to clear FID where smaller ventures struggle.
Conversely, smaller or marginal projects face challenges in securing FID due to the DRC’s complex regulatory environment. This trend highlights a broader issue across Africa where jurisdictions rich in resources fail to convert potential into tangible projects due to governance challenges.
The Broader Context: Jurisdictions at Risk
Several regions with promising geology are struggling to convert resources into operational mines due to various constraints. Countries like Mali and Burkina Faso are hindered by security instability, while Tanzania faces delays from regulatory changes that slow capital deployment. Zambia’s tax volatility further complicates investments in copper mining.
The ongoing re-pricing of risk means that jurisdictions must now clear FID when project internal rates of return exceed adjusted hurdle rates by 300-400 basis points. Stable jurisdictions require hurdle rates of 12-14%, whereas high-risk areas demand rates above 18-20%. The implications of this shift are profound as higher interest rates and geopolitical competition drive investors towards more predictable environments.
The Future Landscape of African Mining
As we look ahead to 2026, it is clear that jurisdictions consistently clearing FID will be those offering predictability and execution certainty. Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea (selectively), the DRC (for Tier-1 assets), Ghana (at scale), Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa are leading this trend. Collectively, these regions account for over 80% of African mining CAPEX currently under construction or advanced execution.
The future will likely see an increased concentration of mining activities in these stable jurisdictions as they effectively manage risk while attracting necessary capital investments. As the window for entry into this group narrows, it becomes imperative for other nations to adapt their policies to meet investor expectations or risk being left behind in Africa’s evolving mining landscape.
