Africa is increasingly recognized as a pivotal player in the global supply chain for battery metals, including lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements. Despite not being the largest producer of these materials, the continent possesses some of the most cost-effective and long-lasting resources essential for meeting the electrification demands projected for the next decade. The control of these critical metals is shaped more by financial investments, ownership frameworks, offtake agreements, and government collaboration than by geological factors alone.
Copper and Cobalt in the DRC: A Model of Scale and Stability
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is at the forefront of global battery metal production, contributing approximately 2.9 million tonnes of copper annually, which accounts for about 12% of worldwide output. Additionally, it produces over 70% of the world’s mined cobalt. Central to this production is the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, operated by Ivanhoe Mines in partnership with Zijin Mining and the Congolese government. With a capital expenditure exceeding US$6.2 billion, this project aims to increase copper production to 650,000 tonnes per year, positioning it among the largest copper mines globally.
The ownership structure at Kamoa-Kakula combines Western technological expertise with Chinese financial backing and a significant stake for the Congolese state, which helps mitigate political risks while ensuring ongoing investment. Further south, Glencore’s Mutanda and Kamoto Copper Company are key players in cobalt production, with Mutanda alone yielding 25,000 to 30,000 tonnes of cobalt alongside substantial copper output.
In a strategic move to diversify control without losing operational influence, Glencore sold a 40% stake in certain DRC assets to a consortium backed by US and Gulf investments for an estimated US$8–9 billion. This shift underscores the DRC’s critical role in global battery supply chains, where scale often outweighs sovereign risk considerations.
Lithium Development Across Southern and West Africa: Challenges Ahead
In contrast to other regions, Africa’s lithium resources are primarily hard-rock deposits that present both quicker development opportunities and higher operational costs compared to South American brines. Zimbabwe stands out with its Arcadia project producing over 400,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually and plans to expand output significantly. The Bikita mine is also ramping up production towards 300,000 tonnes per year while enhancing local processing capabilities that reinforce Chinese control over downstream operations.
Namibia is witnessing a mix of Western and Asian investments in lithium projects like Uis; however, total annual output remains below 150,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, West African nations such as Mali and Ghana face political instability and infrastructure deficits that hinder their nascent lithium sectors. Currently, Chinese entities dominate over 70% of Africa’s lithium production—a trend unlikely to change before 2030.
Rare Earth Elements: Potential vs. Processing Challenges
Africa’s rare earth elements hold significant geological promise but are hampered by inadequate processing capabilities. In Malawi’s Kangankunde project operated by Lindian Resources, there are plans for an annual output of 15,000–20,000 tonnes at an estimated CAPEX of US$200–250 million. Conversely, Tanzania’s Ngualla project faces challenges due to reliance on offshore processing methods for magnet-grade separation.
The lack of local processing infrastructure limits African nations’ ability to capitalize on their high-quality deposits effectively. Establishing such facilities requires substantial investment—estimated between US$400–600 million per plant—alongside long-term agreements for material off-take.
Graphite and Nickel: Emerging Trends in Consolidation
In the graphite sector, Mozambique’s Balama mine produces around 350,000 tonnes per year, establishing itself as a significant non-Chinese supplier in the market. Meanwhile, nickel projects in Madagascar and Botswana are gaining attention but remain smaller compared to Indonesian operations—thus limiting their strategic impact on global supply dynamics.
Capital Dynamics: Redefining Control Over Resources
The landscape of resource control across Africa is increasingly influenced by capital origins. Chinese-linked entities dominate approximately 70% of lithium output and around 60% of DRC’s copper and cobalt exports while controlling 90% of rare earth processing accessible to African mines. In contrast, Western mining companies operate Tier-1 assets but are progressively sharing interests with Asian or Gulf investors.
African governments leverage mechanisms such as carried interests and export controls to enhance their negotiating power; however, they often lack operational oversight. Control now encompasses not only ownership but also financing expansions and managing political risks over extended periods.
The Strategic Implications for Global Supply Chains
Africa is poised to become a crucial supplier of battery metals globally; however, who ultimately captures strategic rents from these resources will depend on several factors: investment in processing facilities and downstream capabilities; infrastructure development; and the willingness of Western capital to engage upstream rather than merely downstream operations.
