S&P Global Market Intelligence, in collaboration with the U.S. Copper Development Association (CDA), has released a comprehensive study examining how the United States can address its projected copper demand. The report, titled “Copper in the US: Opportunities and Challenges,” reveals that without a significant increase in domestic copper production, the U.S. will rely on foreign imports for 60 percent of its refined copper by 2035.
The study projects that U.S. copper demand will double to meet energy transition needs, requiring an additional 1.5 million metric tons by 2035. Total copper consumption, including conventional demand, is expected to reach 3.5 million metric tons, representing a 112 percent increase with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.5 percent.
Key findings of the report include:
- The U.S. has over 275 million metric tons of copper reserves, enough to meet future demand. However, new mining projects in the U.S. face long development times, averaging 29 years to begin production.
- Imports currently fulfill 44 percent of U.S. refined copper demand. The U.S. relies on four primary partners—Chile, Canada, Peru and Mexico—where production is expected to increase by only 6 percent by 2035. Additionally, most imports pass through the Panama Canal, which faces logistical challenges.
- Despite the U.S. recycling more than 32 percent of its copper supply, increased recycling alone will not suffice. Copper products are long-lasting, limiting the amount of recyclable material available.
- Historical data shows a decline in U.S. copper recycling rates from 16 percent in the mid-1990s to under 6 percent in recent years. However, new investments by companies like Ames Copper Group, Wieland, and Aurubis in secondary copper refining may improve these figures.
Adam Estelle, president and CEO of the CDA, emphasizes the need for a strategic approach to ensure the U.S. can fully utilize its copper resources. The CDA advocates for designating copper as a critical mineral on the U.S. Geological Survey list, which could attract investment, streamline permitting, and bolster domestic production.
Estelle calls for a comprehensive strategy that includes increased domestic mining, refining, recycling, and continued trade with reliable partners. “An all-of-government approach, including adding copper to the USGS Critical Minerals list, is crucial for securing our copper supply and supporting the electrification and digitalization of our economy,” Estelle says.
